Trump ‘baggage’ means he won’t be able to run in 2024, predicts top polling expert

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Donald Trump’s chances of being the Republican presidential candidate again in 2024 are very slim owing to the “baggage” he accrued during his presidency, according to a political expert who rightly predicted his victory in 2016.

The claim comes from Allan Lichtman, a political historian at the American University who has accurately called the outcome of seven out of eight US elections in the last 30 years.

“He’s got $400 million-plus in loans coming due. His brand is failing. His businesses are failing. He has a huge IRS audit. He doesn’t hold office anymore. He’s lost his Twitter,” Mr Lichtman told the Miami Herald newspaper.

“That’s a lot of baggage for somebody to run for president.”

Mr Lichtman, a celebrated political analyst and a historian, has made predictions for every election since 1984. The only result he got wrong was in 2000, when his forecast of an Al Gore victory proved inaccurate – by a whisker.

Mr Lichtman says his predictions are based on a series of “13 keys”, or questions he uses to analyse whether a candidate will win a presidential election, which he revealed in detail in his recent book, Predicting the Next President.

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