Trump ‘baggage’ means he won’t be able to run in 2024, predicts top polling expert


Donald Trump’s chances of being the Republican presidential candidate again in 2024 are very slim owing to the “baggage” he accrued during his presidency, according to a political expert who rightly predicted his victory in 2016.

The claim comes from Allan Lichtman, a political historian at the American University who has accurately called the outcome of seven out of eight US elections in the last 30 years.

“He’s got $400 million-plus in loans coming due. His brand is failing. His businesses are failing. He has a huge IRS audit. He doesn’t hold office anymore. He’s lost his Twitter,” Mr Lichtman told the Miami Herald newspaper.

“That’s a lot of baggage for somebody to run for president.”

Mr Lichtman, a celebrated political analyst and a historian, has made predictions for every election since 1984. The only result he got wrong was in 2000, when his forecast of an Al Gore victory proved inaccurate – by a whisker.

Mr Lichtman says his predictions are based on a series of “13 keys”, or questions he uses to analyse whether a candidate will win a presidential election, which he revealed in detail in his recent book, Predicting the Next President.


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