Britain’s former ambassador to the EU has accused Theresa May of “culpable naivety” in Brexit negotiations and warned that the British establishment is running on “PPE tutorial level plausible bullshit”.
Sir Ivan Rogers, who was the UK’s permanent representative to the EU until 2017, when he quit after a run-in with Downing Street, said the EU had the UK “against the wall” and would continue to do so for the foreseeable future.
Describing the Government’s approach to talks, Sir Ivan suggested Theresa May’s bid to placate hardline Brexiteers in her own party meant she had boxed herself in with red lines before talks had even properly begun.
“Nearly two and a half years on from the referendum, we are, in other words, both on the [deal with the EU], and on other post-Brexit trade deals, still lost in campaign mode on fantasy island,” he told an audience at Cambridge University.
Sir Ivan said the UK was embarking on the process with “no plan and little planning, oodles of PPE tutorial level plausible bullshit, supreme self confidence that we understand others’ real interests better than they do, a complete inability to fathom the nature and incentives of the [EU’s] ancien regime”.
While he did not explicitly name the Prime Minister, he said he had seen “extraordinary – indeed I would say culpable – naivete … almost daily for two years”.
“Faced by a UK which essentially wants all the benefits of unchanged free trade from its EU membership days, with none / few of the obligations, the EU repeatedly says: “that is just never going to be on offer, and you must choose between a Canadian style relationship, which offers you much greater autonomy but much lower access to our market, and a Norwegian type deal which offers far better market access but much less autonomy,” he said.
“It was never going to say anything else. It was always going to put first the integrity of its current legal order and the need to demonstrate a very clear distinction between the benefits available to members, and the best that could ever be on offer to any third country. And it was never going to change its legal order for the benefit of a state that had chosen to leave it.”
1/31 Brexit campaign
Boris Johnson MP, Labour MP Gisela Stuart and UKIP MP Douglas Carswell address the people of Stafford in Market Square during the Vote Leave Brexit Battle Bus tour on 17 May 2016. Their lead line on the tour was: “We send the EU £350 million a week, let’s fund our NHS instead.”
Getty
2/31 Voting day
A man shelters from the rain as he arrives at a polling station in London on 23 June 2016. Millions of Britons voted in the referendum on whether to stay in or leave the European Union
AFP/Getty
3/31 Referendum results
Leader of Ukip, Nigel Farage, reacts at the Leave EU referendum party at Millbank Tower in central London as results indicated that it looked likely the UK would leave the European Union
AFP/Getty
4/31 Protesting the result
A young couple painted as EU flags and a man with a sign reading “I’m not leaving” protest outside Downing Street against the voters decision to leave the EU on 24 June 2016
Getty
5/31 David Cameron resigns
British Prime Minister David Cameron resigns on the steps of 10 Downing Street on 24 June 2016 after the results of the EU referendum were declared and the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union
Getty
6/31 Theresa May Becomes the new Conservative Party leader
Theresa May receives a kiss from her husband Philip, after becoming the new Conservative Party leader on 11 July 2016. May became Prime Minister two days later and although she voted to remain in the referendum was keen to lead Britain’s Brexit talks after her only rival in the race to succeed David Cameron pulled out unexpectedly. May was left as the only contender standing after the withdrawal from the leadership race of Andrea Leadsom, who faced criticism for suggesting she was more qualified to be prime minister because she had children
AFP/Getty
7/31 Lancaster House keynote speech on Brexit
British Prime Minister Theresa May delivers her keynote speech on Brexit at Lancaster House in London on 17 January 2017. Where she spoke about her offer to introduce a transition period after the UK formally leaves the European Union in March 2019.
Despite repeating the pro-Brexit mantra of “no deal is better than a bad deal”, the Prime Minister claimed she wanted a “tone of trust” between the negotiators and said Britain was leaving the EU but not Europe.
She said there should be a clear double lock needed for the transitional period to make sure businesses had time to prepare for changes to their trading relationships with the EU
Getty
8/31 Triggering of Article 50
British Prime Minister Theresa May in the cabinet, sitting below a painting of Britain’s first Prime Minister Robert Walpole, signs the official letter to European Council President Donald Tusk invoking Article 50 and the United Kingdom’s intention to leave the EU on 29 March 2017
Getty
9/31 Shock snap election
Soon after triggering Article 50, Theresa May called on 18 April 2017 for a snap general election. The election would be on 8 June and it came as a shock move to many, with her reasoning to try to bolster her position before tough talks on leaving the EU
AFP/Getty
10/31 Dissolution of Parliament for General Election Campaign
Prime Minister Theresa May makes a statement in Downing Street after returning from Buckingham Palace on 3 May 2017. The Prime Minister visited the Queen to ask for the dissolution of Parliament signalling the official start to the general election campaign
Getty
11/31 Conservatives lose parliamentary majority
An arrangement of British daily newspapers showing front page stories about the exit poll results of the snap general election. British Prime Minister Theresa May faced pressure to resign on 9 June 2017 after losing her parliamentary majority, plunging the country into uncertainty as Brexit talks loomed. The pound fell sharply amid fears the Conservative leader would be unable to form a government
AFP/Getty
12/31 Labour gains
Britain’s opposition Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn gives a tumbs up as he arrives at Labour headquarters in central London on 9 June 2017 after the snap general election results showed a hung parliament with Labour gains and the Conservatives losing their majority
AFP/Getty
13/31 Brexit negotiations begin
Brexit Minister David Davis and European Commission member in charge of Brexit negotiations Michel Barnier address a press conference at the end of the first day of Brexit negotiations in Brussels on 19 June 2017
AFP/Getty
14/31 May speaks in Florence
British Prime Minister Theresa May speaks on 22 September 2017, in Florence. May sought to unlock Brexit talks after Brussels demanded more clarity on the crunch issues of budget payments and EU citizens’ rights
AFP/Getty
15/31 EU council summit – insufficient progress
German Chancellor Angela Merkel joins other EU leaders for a breakfast meeting during an EU summit in Brussels on 20 October 2017. The EU spoke about Brexit and announced that insufficient progress had been made
AFP/Getty
16/31 DUP derails settlement on the withdrawal part of Brexit
DUP Deputy Leader Nigel Dodds walks off after speaking to members of the media as a protester holding flags shouts after him outside the Houses of Parliament on 5 December 2017. British Prime Minister Theresa May was forced to pull out of a deal with Brussels after the DUP said it would not accept terms which see Northern Ireland treated differently from the rest of the UK
Getty
17/31 May suffers defeat over EU (Withdrawal) Bill
Theresa May suffers defeat in parliament over EU (Withdrawal) Bill on 13 December 2017. The Government was defeated by Conservative rebels and Labour MPs in a vote on its key piece of Brexit legislation.
MPs amended the EU (Withdrawal) Bill against Theresa May’s will, guaranteeing Parliament a “meaningful” vote on any Brexit deal she agrees with Brussels.
Ms May’s whips applied pressure on Conservative rebels who remained defiant in the Commons throughout the day and in the end the Government was defeated by 309 votes to 305
18/31 EU council summit – sufficient progress
Britain’s Prime minister Theresa May arrives to attend the first day of a European union summit in Brussels on 14 December 2017. European leaders discussed Brexit and announced there was finally sufficient progress at the end of the two days
AFP/Getty
19/31 The game moves to transition
Brexit Secretary David Davis gives evidence on developments in European Union divorce talks to the Commons Exiting the EU Committee in Portcullis House, London, on 24 January 2018
PA
20/31 Trade deal is what May wants
French President Emmanuel Macron gestures to Britain’s Prime Minister Theresa May after they hold a press conference at the Royal Military Academy, Sandhurst, on 18 January 2018. May and Macron agreed a new border security deal, through which the UK will pay more to France to stop migrants trying to reach British shores on 18 January 2018
AFP/Getty
21/31 Transition period agreed
The UK and EU agree terms for Brexit transition period on 19 March, 2018
Reuters
22/31 No agreement on Irish border
The EU and UK however failed to reach an agreement on the Irish border during the successful talks on other Brexit issues
AFP/Getty
23/31 EU attacks May’s ‘fantasy’ strategy
For months after the March deal is struck there is little significant progress in talks. One senior EU official tears into Britain’s ‘fantasy’ negotiating strategy and accuses Theresa May of not even having a position on a variety of important issue
Getty
24/31 UK releases Ireland plan
Britain releases a new customs plan to solve the Northern Ireland border but Michel Barnier says it leaves ‘unanswered’ questions and would not prevent a hard border
EbS
25/31 Chequers plan agreed
The cabinet agrees on a plan known as the “Chequers deal” on July 6 2018. The plan seeks regulatory alignment on goods and food, divergence on services, freedom from the European Courts of Justice and an end to free movement. Many were surprised that the hard Brexiteers of the cabinet would agree to this plan
PA
26/31 Chequers plan sparks resignations
Brexit Secretary David Davis and Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson and numerous ministers resign in the days following the Chequers agreement
Reuters
27/31 Davis out, Raab in
On 9 July, Dominic Raab replaces David Davis as Brexit Secretary. Raab is a keen Brexiteer and was a housing minister before taking over from Davis
Reuters
28/31 Barnier’s “deal like no other”
EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier claims on August 29 2018 that they are prepared to offer Britain a trade deal like no other, though he stressed that they will not divide or change the single market to accommodate Britain
AP
29/31 “My deal or no deal”
In an interview on Panorama on September 17, the Prime Minister insists that any Brexit deal will be offered to the EU on her terms. She asserts this amongst continued attacks on her approach to Brexit by Boris Johnson and the European Research Group, headed by Jacob Rees Mogg
BBC/Jeff Overs
30/31 EU leaders reject Chequers
Quite the blow was dealt to the Prime Minister at a EU leaders summit in Salzburg on September 20. European Council President Donald Tusk stated that the Chequers deal “will not work”
Reuters
31/31 May demands respect
Following the rejection of her Chequers plan the day before, the Prime Minister voiced her anger that the EU had dismissed it without offering an alternative. She stated that “throughout this process, I have treated the EU with nothing but respect. The UK expects the same. A good relationship at the end of this process depends on it.”
Getty
1/31 Brexit campaign
Boris Johnson MP, Labour MP Gisela Stuart and UKIP MP Douglas Carswell address the people of Stafford in Market Square during the Vote Leave Brexit Battle Bus tour on 17 May 2016. Their lead line on the tour was: “We send the EU £350 million a week, let’s fund our NHS instead.”
Getty
2/31 Voting day
A man shelters from the rain as he arrives at a polling station in London on 23 June 2016. Millions of Britons voted in the referendum on whether to stay in or leave the European Union
AFP/Getty
3/31 Referendum results
Leader of Ukip, Nigel Farage, reacts at the Leave EU referendum party at Millbank Tower in central London as results indicated that it looked likely the UK would leave the European Union
AFP/Getty
4/31 Protesting the result
A young couple painted as EU flags and a man with a sign reading “I’m not leaving” protest outside Downing Street against the voters decision to leave the EU on 24 June 2016
Getty
5/31 David Cameron resigns
British Prime Minister David Cameron resigns on the steps of 10 Downing Street on 24 June 2016 after the results of the EU referendum were declared and the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union
Getty
6/31 Theresa May Becomes the new Conservative Party leader
Theresa May receives a kiss from her husband Philip, after becoming the new Conservative Party leader on 11 July 2016. May became Prime Minister two days later and although she voted to remain in the referendum was keen to lead Britain’s Brexit talks after her only rival in the race to succeed David Cameron pulled out unexpectedly. May was left as the only contender standing after the withdrawal from the leadership race of Andrea Leadsom, who faced criticism for suggesting she was more qualified to be prime minister because she had children
AFP/Getty
7/31 Lancaster House keynote speech on Brexit
British Prime Minister Theresa May delivers her keynote speech on Brexit at Lancaster House in London on 17 January 2017. Where she spoke about her offer to introduce a transition period after the UK formally leaves the European Union in March 2019.
Despite repeating the pro-Brexit mantra of “no deal is better than a bad deal”, the Prime Minister claimed she wanted a “tone of trust” between the negotiators and said Britain was leaving the EU but not Europe.
She said there should be a clear double lock needed for the transitional period to make sure businesses had time to prepare for changes to their trading relationships with the EU
Getty
8/31 Triggering of Article 50
British Prime Minister Theresa May in the cabinet, sitting below a painting of Britain’s first Prime Minister Robert Walpole, signs the official letter to European Council President Donald Tusk invoking Article 50 and the United Kingdom’s intention to leave the EU on 29 March 2017
Getty
9/31 Shock snap election
Soon after triggering Article 50, Theresa May called on 18 April 2017 for a snap general election. The election would be on 8 June and it came as a shock move to many, with her reasoning to try to bolster her position before tough talks on leaving the EU
AFP/Getty
10/31 Dissolution of Parliament for General Election Campaign
Prime Minister Theresa May makes a statement in Downing Street after returning from Buckingham Palace on 3 May 2017. The Prime Minister visited the Queen to ask for the dissolution of Parliament signalling the official start to the general election campaign
Getty
11/31 Conservatives lose parliamentary majority
An arrangement of British daily newspapers showing front page stories about the exit poll results of the snap general election. British Prime Minister Theresa May faced pressure to resign on 9 June 2017 after losing her parliamentary majority, plunging the country into uncertainty as Brexit talks loomed. The pound fell sharply amid fears the Conservative leader would be unable to form a government
AFP/Getty
12/31 Labour gains
Britain’s opposition Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn gives a tumbs up as he arrives at Labour headquarters in central London on 9 June 2017 after the snap general election results showed a hung parliament with Labour gains and the Conservatives losing their majority
AFP/Getty
13/31 Brexit negotiations begin
Brexit Minister David Davis and European Commission member in charge of Brexit negotiations Michel Barnier address a press conference at the end of the first day of Brexit negotiations in Brussels on 19 June 2017
AFP/Getty
14/31 May speaks in Florence
British Prime Minister Theresa May speaks on 22 September 2017, in Florence. May sought to unlock Brexit talks after Brussels demanded more clarity on the crunch issues of budget payments and EU citizens’ rights
AFP/Getty
15/31 EU council summit – insufficient progress
German Chancellor Angela Merkel joins other EU leaders for a breakfast meeting during an EU summit in Brussels on 20 October 2017. The EU spoke about Brexit and announced that insufficient progress had been made
AFP/Getty
16/31 DUP derails settlement on the withdrawal part of Brexit
DUP Deputy Leader Nigel Dodds walks off after speaking to members of the media as a protester holding flags shouts after him outside the Houses of Parliament on 5 December 2017. British Prime Minister Theresa May was forced to pull out of a deal with Brussels after the DUP said it would not accept terms which see Northern Ireland treated differently from the rest of the UK
Getty
17/31 May suffers defeat over EU (Withdrawal) Bill
Theresa May suffers defeat in parliament over EU (Withdrawal) Bill on 13 December 2017. The Government was defeated by Conservative rebels and Labour MPs in a vote on its key piece of Brexit legislation.
MPs amended the EU (Withdrawal) Bill against Theresa May’s will, guaranteeing Parliament a “meaningful” vote on any Brexit deal she agrees with Brussels.
Ms May’s whips applied pressure on Conservative rebels who remained defiant in the Commons throughout the day and in the end the Government was defeated by 309 votes to 305
18/31 EU council summit – sufficient progress
Britain’s Prime minister Theresa May arrives to attend the first day of a European union summit in Brussels on 14 December 2017. European leaders discussed Brexit and announced there was finally sufficient progress at the end of the two days
AFP/Getty
19/31 The game moves to transition
Brexit Secretary David Davis gives evidence on developments in European Union divorce talks to the Commons Exiting the EU Committee in Portcullis House, London, on 24 January 2018
PA
20/31 Trade deal is what May wants
French President Emmanuel Macron gestures to Britain’s Prime Minister Theresa May after they hold a press conference at the Royal Military Academy, Sandhurst, on 18 January 2018. May and Macron agreed a new border security deal, through which the UK will pay more to France to stop migrants trying to reach British shores on 18 January 2018
AFP/Getty
21/31 Transition period agreed
The UK and EU agree terms for Brexit transition period on 19 March, 2018
Reuters
22/31 No agreement on Irish border
The EU and UK however failed to reach an agreement on the Irish border during the successful talks on other Brexit issues
AFP/Getty
23/31 EU attacks May’s ‘fantasy’ strategy
For months after the March deal is struck there is little significant progress in talks. One senior EU official tears into Britain’s ‘fantasy’ negotiating strategy and accuses Theresa May of not even having a position on a variety of important issue
Getty
24/31 UK releases Ireland plan
Britain releases a new customs plan to solve the Northern Ireland border but Michel Barnier says it leaves ‘unanswered’ questions and would not prevent a hard border
EbS
25/31 Chequers plan agreed
The cabinet agrees on a plan known as the “Chequers deal” on July 6 2018. The plan seeks regulatory alignment on goods and food, divergence on services, freedom from the European Courts of Justice and an end to free movement. Many were surprised that the hard Brexiteers of the cabinet would agree to this plan
PA
26/31 Chequers plan sparks resignations
Brexit Secretary David Davis and Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson and numerous ministers resign in the days following the Chequers agreement
Reuters
27/31 Davis out, Raab in
On 9 July, Dominic Raab replaces David Davis as Brexit Secretary. Raab is a keen Brexiteer and was a housing minister before taking over from Davis
Reuters
28/31 Barnier’s “deal like no other”
EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier claims on August 29 2018 that they are prepared to offer Britain a trade deal like no other, though he stressed that they will not divide or change the single market to accommodate Britain
AP
29/31 “My deal or no deal”
In an interview on Panorama on September 17, the Prime Minister insists that any Brexit deal will be offered to the EU on her terms. She asserts this amongst continued attacks on her approach to Brexit by Boris Johnson and the European Research Group, headed by Jacob Rees Mogg
BBC/Jeff Overs
30/31 EU leaders reject Chequers
Quite the blow was dealt to the Prime Minister at a EU leaders summit in Salzburg on September 20. European Council President Donald Tusk stated that the Chequers deal “will not work”
Reuters
31/31 May demands respect
Following the rejection of her Chequers plan the day before, the Prime Minister voiced her anger that the EU had dismissed it without offering an alternative. She stated that “throughout this process, I have treated the EU with nothing but respect. The UK expects the same. A good relationship at the end of this process depends on it.”
Getty
Sir Ivan’s departure at the start of 2017 was seen as a blow for the Government because of his experience in dealing with Brussels
In his departing memo to staff at the UK’s Permanent Representative he urged them to fight “ill-founded arguments and muddled thinking” in Government and said they should ”never be afraid to speak the truth to those in power”.
The Independent has launched its #FinalSay campaign to demand that voters are given a voice on the final Brexit deal.
